COP28 in the United Arab Emirates: a Diplomatic Victory in the Gulf States?

COP28 was held in Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates, from November 30th to December 12th 2023. With the adoption of an historic agreement calling for a transition away from carbon energies, can we speak of a diplomatic success for the United Arab Emirates? In what way were the country and the President of COP28, Sultan Al Jaber, head of the national oil company, able to influence the negotiations on the energy transition? As this is the second time that a Gulf country has hosted a COP, after Qatar in 2012, what strategy are the Gulf countries pursuing by taking up climate issues? Are the Gulf States prepared for a shift away from an oil-based economy, and how are they organising themselves to diversify their economies? What might the Gulf States look like in a post-oil era? Jean-Paul Ghoneim, Associate Research Fellow at IRIS and a specialist in the Gulf States, takes a closer look at this issue.

With the adoption of a historic agreement calling for a transition away from carbon energies, can we speak of a diplomatic success for the United Arab Emirates? In what way were the country and the President of COP28, Sultan Al Jaber, head of the national oil company, able to influence the negotiations on the energy transition?

COP28, which has just ended in Dubai, was undoubtedly a major diplomatic success for the United Arab Emirates, not only at international level but also at regional level. Internationally, Mohammed Bin Zayed’s United Arab Emirates are entering the big league and gaining in credibility. They are leaving behind the clichés that cling to Dubai and the lifestyle that goes with it. This success has been a long time in the making, and the Emirates could not afford to fail. In 2006, the United Arab Emirates launched the Masdar project, which focuses exclusively on the production of renewable energy. By placing Sultan Al Jaber, a man of many hats – Minister of Petroleum, Chairman of ADNOC, the Emirates’ main oil company, and Chairman of Masdar – at the head of COP28, the President of the Emirates made a strategic choice that has paid off. Sultan al Jaber, who is highly qualified and enjoys the confidence of the sovereign for having been placed in these strategic positions, is the very symbol of the young generation emerging in the region. These men and women, educated at the best universities, are determined to take their destiny into their own hands and not let anyone dictate to them. What’s more, only a major oil-producing country had the power to influence the members of the very small club of oil-producing countries to secure this important agreement.

On a regional level, Abu Dhabi was looking for a diplomatic success that would reposition the Emirate in the region. Saudi Arabia’s rise to power, its emergence on the diplomatic and economic scene, the emulation that has turned into open rivalry between the two countries in many areas such as regional policy, the choices to move closer to the « Global South » and the independence in ad hoc strategies that only aim to privilege their own interests has for the moment turned to Riyadh’s advantage. On the other hand, neighbouring Qatar has also achieved diplomatic success by acting as facilitator between Hamas and Israel for the release of the Gaza hostages. This new situation called for a diplomatic victory, and what better occasion than the COP, where the whole world is gathered, to assert that the United Arab Emirates is still in a position to act.

COP28 took place in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates, and this is the second time that a Gulf country has hosted a COP, after Qatar in 2012. What strategy are the Gulf States pursuing by taking up climate issues?

The Gulf countries are aware of the urgent need to take action on climate change. They are aware of the changes taking place in the region: temperatures that regularly exceed 50°C in summer, rising sea levels, coastal degradation, Dantean sandstorms and devastating floods. They are striving to combat these climatic phenomena, which they are experiencing like the rest of the planet. According to projections by climatologists, a large part of the region would no longer be habitable if these extreme phenomena were to increase. As one of the main producers of oil and gas, the countries of the region know that they are being singled out by the international community. Which is partly unfair. The hydrocarbons they put on the market, which are responsible for greenhouse gases, are bought by countries that are in fact the real polluters (such as China and India, their main customers). On a strategic level, a successful or even semi-successful COP puts the host and organising country in a strong position to make its voice heard. For some years now, the Gulf region, hitherto regarded as a mere market, has been looking for a way forward. An international forum like the COPs is an excellent way of putting itself on the map and influencing certain decisions.

Are the countries of the Gulf prepared for a shift away from the oil economy, and how are they organising themselves to diversify their economies? What might the Gulf States look like in a post-oil era?

The countries of the region, with the United Arab Emirates a few steps ahead, have been thinking about the post-oil era for some twenty years now. They are looking ahead to the next fifty years or so. Projects like Masdar are pioneering. Saudi Arabia, for its part, is leading the Pharaonic project of the city of Neom and the futuristic city of « The Line », which will stretch over 170 km and is intended to be totally neutral in terms of greenhouse gas emissions, a symbol of this growing awareness. It’s true that the countries of the region are rich in fossil fuels, but they also have an abundant and inexhaustible resource: the sun.

The countries of the region are not just betting on renewable energies. They are trying to develop a large-scale green hydrogen industry, which they believe will eventually replace hydrocarbons.

Gigantic projects are announced every day. For the time being, these countries can finance them from the resources generated by the sale of hydrocarbons.

The other important aspect is the way of life of the region’s inhabitants. Will the new energies be able to replace habits of hyper-consumption of energy (large cars, leisure activities, air conditioning imposed by the climate)?

Some consumption is dictated by climatic conditions and others, such as the ski slopes in shopping centres, are superfluous and the excess that people have become accustomed to – are they ready to be more sober?

For the moment, the picture is blurred and contradictory signals are being sent out, with virtuous declarations of a desire to move away from fossil fuels on the one hand, and the absurd organisation of the Asian Winter Games in 2029 in Saudi Arabia on the other. Even if they are to be held in a mountainous region, the question of the water used to snow-cover the ski slopes for the events, which are destined to be permanent, remains to be resolved.

 

Translated by Deepl.